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The question that has dominated commercial real estate conversations for the past two years finally has an answer. Have cap rates peaked? After months of uncertainty, mounting evidence suggests the answer is yes, and the implications ripple across every corner of the market.
September 2025 will likely be remembered as the month when US commercial real estate decisively turned a corner. Not with fanfare or dramatic reversals, but with the quiet accumulation of data points that, taken together, tell a story of stabilization and nascent recovery. Property prices posted their strongest annual gains since late 2022. Transaction volumes surged. CMBS spreads tightened to year-to-date lows.
And perhaps most tellingly, cap rates, those closely watched barometers of investor sentiment and pricing, appear to have finally stopped their relentless climb.
For an industry that has spent the better part of two years recalibrating to a higher-rate environment, grappling with work-from-home's lasting impact on office demand, and watching valuations reset across multiple sectors, this moment feels different. The pain of repricing hasn't disappeared entirely, but the acute phase may be behind us.
What comes next is a more nuanced story, one where winners and losers emerge not just by sector, but by quality, location, and operational sophistication.
One thing you can be sure of - our REITs portfolio is perfectly positioned to profit from this trend. In fact, it’s already climbing.
Let’s take a look.
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