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The news cycle right now is all war, all the time. The conflict in Iran has pushed oil prices up considerably. West Texas Intermediate crude is still above $95 per barrel, and Brent crude is trading at $98.57. Both were trading under $100 over the course of the weekend and earlier in the day before the G-7 nations announced they would draw down their strategic reserves to bring prices lower.
Whether releasing strategic reserves at this particular moment in time is a brilliant move is, to put it charitably, debatable. But that is what they decided to do.
When we look at the markets broadly, there has been a short to intermediate term change in the trend for U.S. stocks. The trend has shifted from positive to negative. The longer term, overriding trend remains higher. There is meaningful selling pressure in this marketplace. Bonds are floundering.
There is simply no other way to describe it. The bond market has been stuck in a long-term sideways to slightly weaker trend that has been in place pretty much since October, where bonds have simply been unable to rally regardless of the incoming economic news.
Perspective: This Is Not a Panic Situation
The tone online among the nattering nincompoops of the Internet and all the instant experts is pure panic. The world is ending. Private credit is about to blow up the universe. Alarms and bells and whistles going off in every direction. Let us get realistic for a moment.
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